One of the Most Anticipated Altcoins May Be Approaching Launch – Tokens Are Moving, Here Are the Latest Data

On-chain data shows that the Lighter team transferred 250 million LIT tokens (approximately 25%) of the total supply of 1 billion tokens from one token contract to another.

The fact that this transfer happened recently has reinforced market expectations that this is the share allocated for the first airdrop. The team had previously indicated a 25-30% range for the initial distribution.

Pre-market pricing also supports this expectation. In the pre-launch market, Lighter’s fully diluted value (FDV) is priced at approximately $3.3–$3.5 billion, which points to $3.3–$3.5 per LIT. If the 25% carried over was indeed reserved for the airdrop, then at current pre-market prices, the token distribution pool could exceed $800 million.

In terms of airdrop mathematics, a pool of 250 million LIT, assuming a total of 12–12.5 million points, translates to approximately 20–21 LIT per point. This translates to around $66–70 per point, depending on the token price.

On the other hand, expectations regarding the launch timing have also begun to become clearer. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Lighter not holding a TGE (Token Generation Event) in 2025 is priced at 35%, while the most likely launch date is December 29, 2025. This scenario, along with expectations of an airdrop, has increased investor interest.