Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Intensifies Bitcoin Outlook

Jurien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, recently altered his optimistic stance on Bitcoin

, predicting an increased risk of a “ crypto winter” by 2026. According to Timmer, Bitcoin’s peak in October at approximately $125,000 conformed remarkably well to the four-year cycles in both price and time. In his analysis shared on his social media platform, he highlighted that past bear markets typically lasted for about a year, suggesting that 2026 might serve as a transitional period for Bitcoin. He identified the critical support band between $65,000 and $75,000.

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Completing the Four-Year Cycle

Central to Timmer’s thesis is the notion that Bitcoin exhibits a recurring rhythm tied to the block reward halving events every four years. He asserts that when reviewed through the lens of analogy and temporal comparisons, the current cycle aligns closely with previous ones.

He noted that the October peak of approximately $125,000 followed a cumulative 145-month rise, fitting into an “expected” timeframe. In the same evaluation, Timmer expressed that Bitcoin “winter” phases typically endure about a year, thus the momentum might remain subdued in 2026.

While he maintains his long-term bullish stance, describing himself as a “secular bull,” his concerns are focused on the completion of the four-year block reward halving phase, both in price and time aspects.

Gold Holds Strong While Bitcoin Weakens

Timmer compared Bitcoin’s weakness with gold’s robust performance in 2025. Recent data show that gold has surged by approximately 65% since the year’s beginning, surpassing global monetary supply growth. Timmer interpreted this as typical “bull market” behavior.

He noted that during recent pullbacks, gold has retained most of its gains, an indicator of a typical upward trend’s resilience. Additionally, the expectation for a “mean reversion” between gold and Bitcoin in the short term remains weak.

Reflecting on this scenario, Timmer outlines a more cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the near term, highlighting the $65,000–$75,000 range. He speculates that 2026 could represent a period of pause within the post-halving cycle.