"Fed Mouthpiece": Reasons for Another Rate Cut in January Still Insufficient

BlockBeats news, on December 16, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Fed mouthpiece," analyzed today's US employment data, stating that the unemployment rate in November rose to 4.564%, up 12 basis points from September's 4.440%. Powell stated last week that the Fed believes its policy setting will stabilize the unemployment rate, or "will only rise by another one or two percentage points." The new employment report is sufficient to validate the rate cuts the Fed has implemented so far as reasonable, but this alone is not enough to trigger panic and lead to a rate cut in January.

After the release of today's US employment and retail sales data, US interest rate futures still expect two rate cuts in 2026. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January next year has risen slightly, from 24.4% to 31%.