HBAR's Surge Falls Short of Technical Benchmarks as Crucial Thresholds Shape Its Outcome

HBAR's latest price rebound has not managed to persuade traders, as essential technical signals point to fading bullish strength. The token climbed almost 26% from its November 21 low around $0.12, with

. Still, experts caution that the upward move lacks the momentum needed for a lasting reversal, leaving the asset exposed to a possible sharp pullback.

The main technical pattern—a cup-and-handle formation on the 4-hour timeframe—has

. This typically bullish setup, which often signals a breakout following a period of consolidation, requires a firm close above $0.147 to confirm its validity. If the price can hold above $0.158, it could pave the way for a move toward $0.194. However, the reliability of this pattern is in doubt as the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator, which gauges buying momentum, has . Although BBP is still in positive territory, its downward trend indicates that buyers are losing their grip at a pivotal moment. Should the price fall below $0.143, the bullish pattern would be completely negated, shifting the outlook to bearish.

The broader picture also raises concerns.

continues to trade within a descending channel, a pattern marked by falling highs and lows. The bounce from the channel's lower edge on November 21—a 27% rally—was short-lived, highlighting limited support from larger investors. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures institutional capital flows, has and has yet to move above zero, signaling a lack of significant buying interest from major players. This absence of institutional backing casts doubt on the durability of the recent price surge.

Traders are now focused on a crucial inflection point. If HBAR can close above $0.147 for an extended period, it could revive the bullish scenario suggested by the cup-and-handle pattern. Conversely, a drop below $0.143 would likely prompt a retest of the November 21 lows.

, as the outcome may determine whether HBAR's short-term trend reverses upward or continues to decline.