Institution: The US labor market will continue to show weakness, and the negative impact of the September non-farm payroll report may be amplified.

Jinse Finance reported that the September non-farm payrolls report, which was delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is scheduled to be released tonight. In the context of a rapidly evolving economic environment, the timeliness of this data may have been greatly diminished. However, this employment report is likely to be the last reliable jobs data for the coming months, as the government shutdown has severely disrupted the normal process of data collection and analysis for parts of October and November. Economists generally predict that 50,000 new jobs will be added in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. If the data meets expectations, 2025 is set to become the weakest year for U.S. employment growth since the pandemic and even the global financial crisis. Indeed Hiring Lab economist Allison Shrivastava stated that, compared to previous reports, she does not expect significant changes in the September report, and the current weakness in the labor market is likely to continue. Pantheon Macroeconomics Senior U.S. Economist Oliver Allen noted that any data that appears disappointing at present could be amplified due to a six-week data vacuum, with its negative impact potentially being exaggerated. (Golden Ten Data)