BTC Market Pulse: Week 46

Overview

After a sharp drawdown in late October, price action has begun to stabilize, forming what appears to be a potential bottoming structure. The recovery toward $106K suggests early signs of buyer re-engagement, with momentum beginning to firm up from deeply oversold conditions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from sub-30 readings, indicating that selling pressure may be waning. This aligns with a mild improvement in cumulative volume delta, showing reduced aggression from sellers and a gradual return of two-way flow. Spot trading activity remains elevated near recent highs, confirming sustained participation and the potential for volatility expansion should price break beyond short-term resistance levels around $111K–$116K.

In derivatives, open interest continues to contract modestly, reflecting deleveraging and reduced speculative exposure. Options markets remain defensive, with skew elevated as traders maintain downside hedges, though the narrowing volatility spread implies that fear is beginning to subside. These conditions point to a cautious but stabilizing derivatives environment.

ETF flows remain negative but consistent, suggesting measured profit-taking rather than large-scale exits. Meanwhile, on-chain activity remains constructive: transfer volumes have surged above their statistical range, signaling renewed capital movement, while address activity and transaction fees indicate stable network utilization.

Profitability metrics remain weak, with a deeper drawdown in unrealized gains and losses, reflecting stress across short-term holders. However, such conditions often precede accumulation phases as stronger hands absorb supply from capitulating participants.

Bitcoin appears to be testing a critical inflection zone. Market conditions remain cautious yet constructive, with improving momentum, stabilizing flows, and signs of a potential local bottom forming around $100K. This range between $100K and $108K could mark a mid-term base of support, though the broader macro downtrend in profitability continues to anchor sentiment and limit upside conviction.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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