Key Notes
- Bitcoin backer is convinced the coin has pivoted from its historic 4-year cycle, which is driven by halving events.
- Key indicators, such as the Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, and Puell Multiple, hint at mid-cycle consolidation.
- Bitcoin price has increased by 2.38% over the last 24 hours.
Science Author, Shanaka Anslem Perera, on X, pointed out that Bitcoin has pivoted from its historic 4-year cycle, which is driven by halving events. As a result of this shift, the coin’s traditional playbook of significant positive momentum has now become obsolete. Still, the crypto enthusiast does not think that Bitcoin’s bull run is over.
Bitcoin Turns Away From 4-Year Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin’s performance has followed a four-year cycle, largely driven by halving events, which result in a reduction in the block reward.
At every point in this cycle, the crypto ecosystem experienced a massive bull run, followed by sharp price corrections. Fast forward to the present day, and there seems to be a notable shift that has now rendered this traditional playbook obsolete.
On October 6, 2025, Crypto Twitter declared Bitcoin’s cycle peak at $126,270. Then this was followed by a 21% drop in the coin’s price levels.
BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE JUST DIED AND NOBODY NOTICED
Crypto Twitter exploded calling October 6th the cycle peak. Eighty-four percent crashes incoming. Bear market confirmed. Pack it up.
Except the math says they are catastrophically wrong.
Every indicator that called previous… pic.twitter.com/b6sj1kGn5e
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) November 8, 2025
As a result, several influencers and analysts, armed with historical patterns, predicted an 84% crash and a prolonged bear market. However, Perera believes that there may be a different story to tell.
There may still be hope, as he claims that the bull run is far from over. Apparently, key indicators such as the Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, and Puell Multiple, which would usually signal the onset of a bull run, are unusually quiet.
According to these metrics, the crypto market is in a mid-cycle consolidation, and not the end of the road.
Institutional Demand For Bitcoin ETFs Shatters 4-Year Cycle
Perera believes that Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) may have played a vital role in redirecting the four-year cycle. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a staggering $64 billion, with giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and corporate treasuries acting as a vacuum for every whale dump.
The influx of institutional investors into the sector may have rid Bitcoin of certain rollercoasters.
On November 4, Coinspeaker reported that Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of up to $186.5 million, led entirely by BlackRock’s IBIT. Within the last six days leading up to November 7, there were consistent outflows totaling $660 million.
Within the last 24 hours, the sector has seen up to $240 million flood back into ETFs. In the wake of this situation, the Bitcoin price has recovered by 2.38% and is currently trading at $101,997.13. Consequently, Market experts have concluded that settlement, not sentiment, now governs Bitcoin’s price.
