Bitcoin Flashes First “Red October” Since 2018
First RED October since 2018 for #Bitcoin .
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 3, 2025
NOVEMBER MUST BE BULLISH! pic.twitter.com/byyi8ScB4u
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin returned -3.6 percent in October of 2025, the first negative month this year, and its second negative October in six years. Traditionally, October is one of the most bullish months in the Bitcoin history with several years of stable double-digit returns, such as +27.7% in 2020, +39.9% in 2021, and +10.7% in 2024. The 2025 red October is now a kind of exemption in a decade-long trend of strength.
According to the TradingView data, the downward trend of the Bitcoin start was due to the huge liquidation of two hundred billion dollars on October 10, one of the biggest in the history of the crypto-market. The recovery erased the over-leveraged positions and challenged Bitcoin at the 50-week moving average.
Although the dip was there, Bitcoin was able to stay above the range of $100,000 which is evidence of a great accumulation at that level. Analysts explain the downward trend by profit-taking and short-term market cooling, as opposed to a long-term reversal.
Past Data Indicates a Bullish November
According to CoinGlass statistics, November has long been a good month to recover Bitcoin, and has made positive returns in 8 out of the last 12 years. Bitcoin has a +4.25% average gain in November, and it is +8.81% median. Even the smallest gains such as +8.8% in 2023 and +0.56% in 2024 imply that November has historical tendencies of bullish returns following unstable October.
Market analysts are also sharing the optimism of the @CryptoRover by forecasting that in November, the Bitcoin would break the upper limit of the resistance zone of 120,000 assuming that overall economic conditions are conducive. Macro indicators are also in favor of a rebound. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index that had entered the fear zone following the October correction is beginning to recover. In the meantime, the liquidity environment in the global market is still positive as monetary easing and quantitative expansion continue to pose a threat of a risk-on surrounding to crypto assets. This has an indication that the price action of Bitcoin could stabilise more quickly than in the past recessions, which is consistent with the bullish seasonal data.
Bitcoin Technical Charts Indicate Strength
According to technical data indicated by the four-hour chart with TradingView, the Change of Character (CHoCH) was bullish around the areas around the $100,000 mark, which is an indication that the momentum would change direction to increase. When Bitcoin continues holding this price and surpassing 105,000, traders forecast to push the price to $120,000 at the end of the year.
The configuration is reflective of the post-2018 trends, whereby Bitcoin proceeded with a red October, followed by multi-month spurts caused by a resurgence of investor confidence.
Why Red October Could Be a Good Thing
In the past, the red month in the last quarter is usually followed by powerful recoveries in the market. Following the October 2018 -3.83% downturn, Bitcoin went into a period of consolidation, which culminated into the 20202021 bull run.This variation cycle confirms the suspicion that November 2025 may set the next leg, with the idea that capital may be redirected to digital assets once more after the correction.
Market Projection
Bitcoin is within the range of slightly over $100,000, and traders are keenly awaiting the breakout. The analysts anticipate the possibility of a great risk-on rally this month as a result of positive macro data, or ETF inflows, or declining inflation. In case Bitcoin ends the month of November positively, it would cement the long-term tradition of red October followed by bullish November that would precondition a possible end-of-year spurt.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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