Cobie: Whether Bitcoin's returns are diminishing remains uncertain, but the difficulty and risk of trading altcoins will continue to rise.

ChainCatcher News, crypto KOL Cobie tweeted that it is still uncertain whether bitcoin will continue to provide diminishing returns, but trading altcoins (on average) will become increasingly difficult and dangerous, which is an irreversible trend. The reasons include:

Fierce and increasingly sophisticated competition among buyers, while conviction is decreasing;

Mainly traded through perpetual contracts and leverage;

Market caps are by default overestimated and heavily diluted;

At launch, FDV captures all optimistic sentiment, ignoring price and valuation;

Excessive price discovery in pre-market trading leads to insecurity.

In 2017, buyers bought spot and held for weeks or months, as conviction was strong and they increased positions during the rally, with early low valuations being effective. In 2025, buyers purchase via perpetual contracts, do not check valuations, and sell when profits turn negative or are forcibly liquidated. However, altcoins are still the best field for smart people to achieve high returns, where skill expression and asset selection are more important, and patience to enter the market "early" is more rewarded in liquid markets.