Key Notes
- The US Federal Reserve announced plans to halt QT by December 1, 2025.
- When this move was made in 2019, altcoins underperformed significantly.
- Ted Pillows says altcoins need liquidity, which is more likely to come from TGA.
Popular market analyst Ted Pillows took to X to share insights on what the future holds for altcoins.
His analysis comes as the Federal Reserve plots an end to its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.
He highlighted an incident from six years ago when altcoins’ reliance on direct liquidity was quite obvious.
Historical Pattern Says QE Supports Altcoin Rally
On October 30, Ted Pillows shared insights on the future of altcoins as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) program.
The Fed recently announced its intention to suspend QT runoff by December 1, 2025. As a result, the central bank will reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills.
This is to help keep total holdings steady month-to-month while shifting the portfolio composition. This information has met with many investors wondering how some digital assets will be impacted.
Back in October 2019, the Fed made a similar move with the intention of stabilizing the financial market. This action impacted negatively on the outlook and performance of altcoins.
Per the insights gathered from the chart shared by Pillows, the altcoin market cap plunged by 42% during the months that followed.
The Fed ended QT in October 2019.
Alts dropped 42% after that.
They only started pumping once the Fed started QE in March 2020.
What's interesting is that the S&P 500 rallied during this time period.
This shows that ending QT isn't enough for alts to rally.
They need some… pic.twitter.com/wIdV0L4RjR
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 30, 2025
It remained at these lows until March 2020, when the introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE) provided relief for altcoins. Observing this historic pattern, it is clear that ending QT alone is not enough to automatically inject liquidity into riskier assets like altcoins.
On the contrary, it is the active expansion of money supply that comes with QE that triggers any rally for altcoins.
Altcoins Need Liquidity, Ted Calls Out
Ted concluded that all the altcoin market needed was some liquidity, which could happen in two ways.
He said it is either the Fed “start QE or the Treasury needs to release TGA liquidity into the economy.” Judging by the current market outlook, the analyst noted that the first scenario is unlikely in the near term.
Also, the TGA option is largely hinged on the suspension of the US government shutdown , which started on October 1, 2025.
“I think we could see more underperformance in the crypto market for some time,” Ted wrote on X.
