Trump's Truth Social Enters Prediction Market, Competing Directly with Polymarket

As Truth Predict launches, Polymarket is planning its return to the U.S. market.

Written by: Joel Khalili, Wired Magazine

Translated by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Truth Social, the social media platform majority-owned by U.S. President Donald Trump and his family, is launching a cryptocurrency-based betting service that will directly compete with the popular Polymarket.

This new service, called "Truth Predict," will allow Truth Social users to use cryptocurrency as their betting principal to predict the outcomes of specific events, covering areas such as sports games, political elections, and even economic changes. Truth Social is operated by the publicly listed Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).

Typically, a single prediction is presented in the form of a binary question, such as: "Will Taylor Swift release a new original song before October 2?" or "Will Barcelona win the Champions League?"

On the eve of the 2024 U.S. election, prediction markets entered the mainstream spotlight for the first time. Supporters claim that these markets are a better alternative to traditional polling and a more efficient "source of truth."

Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, stated in a release: "With Truth Predict, we are advancing the democratization of information, enabling Americans to leverage collective wisdom and turn free speech into actionable, forward-looking judgments."

Truth Predict is being launched in partnership with an affiliate of the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. Currently, the prediction market sector is mainly dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have recently completed funding rounds at multi-billion dollar valuations.

The launch of Truth Predict comes as Polymarket is planning its return to the U.S. market—after previously being forced to exit the U.S. during Joe Biden's administration. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused Polymarket of operating an unregistered derivatives trading market. Polymarket reached a settlement with the agency, with one of the conditions being its exit from the U.S. market.

In November 2024, the residence of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). At the time, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating whether the platform had violated the ban in the settlement agreement by continuing to accept bets from U.S. residents (Coplan was neither arrested nor charged).

After Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, the situation changed. Under the Trump administration, regulators stopped lawsuits against well-known cryptocurrency companies, and the DOJ instructed prosecutors to "turn a blind eye" to certain crypto-related crimes.

In July of the same year, Bloomberg reported that the DOJ had ended its investigation into Polymarket and had not filed any charges, clearing the way for the company’s return to the U.S. market.

Zach Hamilton, founder of crypto startup Sarcophagus, told Wired in an interview: "If you had to pinpoint a key reason why (crypto prediction markets) are able to return to the U.S., it would definitely be the Trump administration—in plain terms, Donald Trump himself."

In fact, even before the launch of Truth Predict, the Trump family already had economic interests in the development of the U.S. prediction market sector.

In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor; in August of the same year, Polymarket received investment from venture capital firm 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner. As part of the deal, he also joined Polymarket’s advisory board.

Just as Polymarket was seeking to return to the U.S. market, the Trump family established ties with the platform. This situation has drawn close attention from critics, who believe the investment could constitute a conflict of interest. Critics argue that the deal creates opportunities for the Trump family to profit from policy changes promoted by the Trump administration.

Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project (an organization dedicated to monitoring the conduct of elected officials), stated: "No one would say that, in a capitalist country, the president’s family can’t engage in normal capitalist activities. But Polymarket is at the center of intense political controversy, so this investment reflects a significant conflict of interest—and it’s a conflict that could have been avoided."

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to Wired in a statement: "The President and his family have never, and will never, be involved in any conflicts of interest."

As of now, Polymarket, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), and 1789 Capital have not responded to requests for comment.

The launch of Truth Predict could also lead to direct competition between different branches of the Trump family business empire.

Chris Perkins, managing partner at crypto venture capital firm CoinFund, said: "From a venture capital perspective, many of us are reluctant to invest in projects that are in competition with each other and try to avoid such situations—we strive to identify the 'category winner.'"

In fact, Trump family-related businesses have long operated competing bitcoin treasury companies; in June 2025, there was even a dispute over which company had the right to launch the 'official' Trump-branded crypto wallet.