Fed loses access to "small non-farm payroll" data
"Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote that Federal Reserve officials recently lost access to third-party employment data. Since 2018, the payroll processing company ADP has been providing the Federal Reserve with a dataset containing anonymous employment and income information, covering 20% of the private sector workforce in the United States. The Federal Reserve typically received this data about a week after the fact, making it a timely and comprehensive measure of the employment market conditions. Sources revealed that ADP stopped providing this data to the Federal Reserve after Fed Governor Waller's speech at the end of August drew public attention to the Fed's long-term use of ADP employment data. The specific reasons for this change are not yet clear. In Waller's speech, he cited ADP's data in a footnote, further illustrating his concerns about the slowing labor market. The footnote indicated that preliminary estimates show that the summer hiring situation continues to deteriorate, and the data timeframe exceeds the coverage period of the latest government data.
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