Goldman Sachs’ base case remains that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026.

Three members of Goldman Sachs' Economic Research Department stated in a report that Goldman Sachs' baseline forecast remains that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, although there is a risk of a rate hike in December. The formation of a new government led by Sanae Takaichi, a supporter of Abenomics, has increased uncertainty surrounding this outlook. However, Goldman Sachs remains cautiously optimistic about the Bank of Japan's ability to continue raising rates and its independence, for four reasons. These include the significant improvement in Japan's economic and price conditions compared to when Abenomics was launched in 2012. It now appears that "there is almost no need to implement large-scale monetary easing policies like Abenomics." (Golden Ten Data)