[Long Thread] Crypto "Three Kingdoms"

Chainfeeds Guide:

If the future megatrend of crypto is “compliance,” “institutionalization,” and “licensing,” then the crypto world will ultimately belong to Wall Street.

Source:

Haotian

Opinion:

Haotian: The crypto-native narrative faction corresponds to the “Shu Kingdom,” which occupies a remote corner, residing in the perilous land of Bashu, with Vitalik Buterin as “Zhuge Liang,” drawing up grand blueprints like “Rollup Centric” and the “ZK Endgame” as the roadmap. They advocate for “Code is Law” and “decentralization,” governing by virtue, much like Liu Bei’s benevolence-based rule. It seems to stand on the moral high ground, but in the brutal market competition, it is constrained everywhere. Whether it’s allying with Wu to resist Wei or attempting to unify the Central Plains, they keep launching new technological narratives—from DeFi to NFT, then to layer2 and AI Agent—just like Zhuge Liang’s six northern expeditions, each time with great fanfare, but mass adoption always falls just one step short. After Zhuge Liang devoted his life and died, developers fled to the AI sector, resulting in a talent drain and no successors. Although I really don’t want to say that “idealism” was the first to be eliminated, fortunately, the spirit of “the Han and traitors cannot coexist” and the ethos of decentralization will become the orthodox lineage of the industry and continue to be passed down. The CEX exchange alliance corresponds to the “Wei Kingdom,” occupying the Central Plains, with CZ as “Cao Cao,” wielding “user liquidity” and “token listing rights” to command the lords. They vigorously implement the “Tuntian System” strategy, establishing a new pipeline of Wallet+Alpha+Contracts, drawing all forces into an internal self-circulation. Fortunately, they value talent regardless of whether it’s the tech faction or the MEME faction—as long as you bring trading volume, you’re welcome. Thus, their national strength was once the strongest, crushing other competitors. However, the biggest risk of this approach is breeding too many “parasites”—market makers, project teams, and KOLs all leeching off the system. Once something goes wrong, the entire system collapses instantly. In the end, it created a bustling and prosperous era, but after a wave of “regulatory arbitrage,” it ultimately became an illusion. In the end, it either gets “recruited” by regulators, is hollowed out by internal interest groups, or is usurped by new forces. This constant creation of “quick money projects,” overdrawing the industry’s long-term credibility, will inevitably backfire. In the end, whether the CEX empire is surnamed “Zhao” or “Trump” is hard to say. Wall Street financial capital corresponds to the “Eastern Wu,” ruling over Jiangdong, with Coinbase, BlackRock, and other Wall Street institutions and American political veterans as “Sun Quan.” Sometimes they ally with the tech faction Shu for decentralized innovation, sometimes with the operational CEX Wei for compliance channels—whoever is useful, they ally with, focusing on the strategy of “allying with secondary enemies to strike the main enemy.” Like Eastern Wu’s control of the Yangtze River’s natural barrier, Wall Street holds the advantage of “dollar hegemony” and a “compliance moat,” using ETFs to control off-chain entry points, USDT and USDC to control on-chain settlements, and strategies like tokenized US stocks and on-chain US Treasuries (RWA) to penetrate the DeFi ecosystem. The smartest move now is to keep a low profile, let the tech faction and CEX fight to the death, while quietly making huge profits. There’s no doubt that if the future megatrend of crypto is “compliance,” “institutionalization,” and “licensing,” then the crypto world will ultimately belong to Wall Street. Now you know why people say the old Northern Wei’s world might change its surname to Eastern Wu “Trump.” The difference is, Trump is not Sima Yi—he doesn’t need to lie low and play tricks.