Barclays predicts a steady slowdown in the US economy, with tariffs and employment as risk factors

Jinse Finance reported that Barclays Bank expects the US economy's quarterly growth to average around 2% from the third quarter of 2025 to the third quarter of 2026. This forecast reflects that economic expansion remains robust, but as fiscal stimulus gradually fades and trade headwinds persist, the pace of growth will tend to slow down. The bank stated that recently implemented tariffs will have a "chronic drag" effect on economic activity, with most companies expected to gradually pass on higher import costs rather than immediately triggering a surge in prices. This may ease inflation data pressure in the short term but will prolong the period during which corporate profit margins remain under pressure. Barclays also warned that the main downside risks to its economic outlook come from a slowdown in consumer spending and a possible rise in the unemployment rate, which could hit confidence and discretionary demand as we head into 2026.