Traders Bet on Major Moves by the Federal Reserve by Year-End

Jinse Finance reported that traders have begun betting that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one significant rate cut before the end of the year, convinced that policy may turn more aggressive than currently expected by other market observers. Recent trading activity in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) shows the market is increasing its positioning for a half-percentage-point rate cut, which could occur at either the meeting later this month or the December meeting. This expectation exceeds the two 25-basis-point cuts already priced into current interest rate swaps. Due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, the release of key employment and other economic data has been delayed. Once the deadlock is resolved, a large amount of data will emerge, revealing the latest changes in economic conditions. Some expect this data may further indicate economic weakness, thereby supporting additional rate cuts.