Bitcoin price prediction: Bitcoin has shown renewed strength post‑halving, holding above $120,000 and signaling potential continuation to new highs as institutional ETF inflows and U.S. government risk dynamics support upside momentum over the coming months.
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Bitcoin may reach a new all‑time high within weeks if ETF inflows continue
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Standard Chartered notes BTC has diverged from the typical 18‑month post‑halving decline pattern.
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Net Bitcoin ETF inflows total $58 billion year‑to‑date, with $23 billion recorded in 2025.
Bitcoin price prediction: BTC trades above $120k; institutional ETF flows and U.S. government risk signal upside—read the analysis and next steps.
What is the Bitcoin price prediction after the April 2024 halving?
Bitcoin price prediction is that BTC could continue climbing: current momentum above $120,000 reflects strong ETF demand and macro risk drivers, and Standard Chartered’s research suggests a path toward $135,000–$200,000 if inflows persist and risk premia remain elevated.
How did Standard Chartered explain Bitcoin’s deviation from the 18‑month post‑halving pattern?
Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, explained that Bitcoin has diverged from the historical 18‑month weakness pattern because current market conditions differ materially. Kendrick highlighted the role of U.S. government shutdown risks and the relationship between BTC and the U.S. treasury term premium.
Why is institutional demand important for the Bitcoin price prediction?
Front‑loaded flows matter: net Bitcoin ETF inflows of $58 billion year‑to‑date signal sustained institutional allocation. Strong ETF creation and investor confidence can compress supply and push prices higher. Standard Chartered forecasts additional inflows could underpin targets up to $200,000 by year‑end.
When did BTC recently trade above $120,000 and what does that mean?
BTC traded above $121,000 during a recent surge and was around $120,420 early Friday, reflecting renewed momentum. Price stability above $120k has shifted market sentiment, with prediction‑market users and analysts increasing probability of continued strength into mid‑October.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is Bitcoin to stay above $120,000 through mid‑October?
Prediction‑market sentiment shifted quickly: nearly half of users now expect BTC above $120,000 by October 15, up from 20% days earlier. This increased probability reflects recent price stability and growing ETF inflows.
What are the main risks to this Bitcoin price prediction?
Key risks include sudden ETF outflows, tighter monetary conditions, or unexpected macro events that compress risk premia. These could reverse momentum even if institutional demand remains positive.
Key Takeaways
- Divergence from history: Bitcoin has not followed the typical 18‑month post‑halving decline, driven by different macro and market conditions.
- Institutional flows matter: $58 billion in net ETF inflows year‑to‑date, with $23 billion in 2025, are a central bullish factor.
- Watch indicators: Monitor ETF flows, treasury term premium, price support at $120k, and prediction‑market sentiment for near‑term signals.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered’s analysis suggests a bullish Bitcoin price prediction supported by robust ETF inflows and altered macro dynamics. Front‑loaded evidence—price action above $120,000 and sizable institutional demand—implies upside potential, while investors should monitor flows and macro risk for changes.
Published: 2025-10-03 · Updated: 2025-10-03 · Author: COINOTAG
