Bitcoin Nears $120,000 Amid Near-Certain Fed Rate Cut and Liquidity Tailwinds | US Crypto News
Bitcoin is closing in on the $120,000 milestone as traders price in a near-certain October Fed rate cut. Weak labor data, suspended government reports, and liquidity-driven safe-haven flows are amplifying BTC demand. While ETF inflows underpin momentum, prolonged US shutdown risks could test Bitcoin’s resilience amid macro uncertainty.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee because markets are bracing for a pivotal October with shifting signals, quiet liquidity whispers, and unusual safe-haven flows. The mood is tense, the probabilities are tilting, and Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself once again at the center of speculation.
Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Approaches $120,000 as Markets Brace for Near-Certain October Rate Cut
Bitcoin is trading at $118,746, inching toward the psychological $120,000 milestone, as investors pile into assets seen as beneficiaries of looser monetary conditions.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 99% probability of an October rate cut, projecting a move into the 3.75% to 4.00% range.
The catalyst came from Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report, one of the critical labour market data points investors were watching. The data revealed 32,000 private job losses in September, well below expectations of a 51,000 gain and marking the steepest decline since March 2023.
US ADP Employment. Source: Bloomberg Finance
Compounding concerns, August’s payrolls were revised from a reported +54,000 jobs to a -3,000 decline. This means two straight months of contraction for US private-sector employment.
The data and a partial US government shutdown have left investors blind. Key economic reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including Friday’s non-farm payrolls, are suspended. If the shutdown extends, even the CPI report on October 15 could be affected.
Against this backdrop, ETF inflows into Bitcoin continue to underpin demand. However, markets remain vulnerable if the Fed hesitates.
According to TradFi media, Deutsche Bank and ING both flagged the risk of prolonged shutdown fallout, with Oxford Economics estimating that GDP could shrink by up to 0.2% per week if closures drag on. Even so, seasonal optimism persists.
Bitcoin’s pushing toward $120K after a 4%+ jump, marking a seven-week high as “Uptober” seasonality kicks in and traders price in higher odds of Fed rate cuts amid weaker U.S. data and a government shutdown. Momentum is broad-based (ETH, SOL, XRP also up), with resistance near…
Safe-Haven Flows, Liquidity, and the Epstein Angle
While Bitcoin steals the spotlight, veteran analyst Ira Epstein highlighted that the liquidity dynamics fueling gold and silver are also at play.
In his October 1 metals wrap, Epstein pointed to Fed easing expectations and government paralysis as drivers behind inflows to safe-haven assets.
“I expected that we’d get something of a rally in gold and silver,” he said.
However, Epstein noted that caution remains warranted as volatility picks up. He emphasized that bond and note markets are also catching bids, mirroring broad uncertainty around US policy data gaps.
For Bitcoin investors, this link between liquidity and asset behavior is striking. The same tailwinds pushing gold higher are mirrored in crypto’s ascent. The tailwinds comprise a weaker dollar, bond market strength, and safe-haven rotation.
Unlike past shutdown cycles, where volatility often stayed contained, the intersection of ETF flows and near-certain Fed action amplifies Bitcoin’s move. Still, some warn that the rally is not invincible.
“A short closure will probably look like a blip for US equities…But a prolonged coma and the mass layoffs President Trump is threatening could cause material damage,” Fortune reported, citing Oxford’s Ryan Sweet.
That scenario could force the Fed into deeper cuts, but it could also trigger risk-off sentiment, which would weigh on high-volatility assets like BTC.
With $120,000 in sight and liquidity tailwinds building, October could mark another defining chapter in Bitcoin’s institutionalization.
This expectation comes as the pioneer crypto behaves less like a speculative outlier and more like a macro-safe haven, even if politics and policy uncertainty cloud the path forward.
Chart of the Day
October Rate Cut Odds. Source:
Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
- Grayscale is quietly accumulating four altcoins —Are these the next big winners?
- Travis Hill nominated as permanent FDIC Chair amid regulatory reassessment.
- Sweden’s opposition party calls for a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
- Who really profits from meme coins? Galaxy says it’s not the traders.
- Ethereum’s Uptober at risk? Key data reveals growing investor caution.
- Metaplanet Bitcoin revenue jumps 115.7% as stock plunges 67.5% in Q3.
- Privacy token Zcash rockets to a 3-year high, but can the rally hold?
- Why these three meme coins could soon join the billion-dollar market cap club in 2025.
Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview
| Company | At the Close of October 1 | Pre-Market Overview |
| Strategy (MSTR) | $338.41 | $344.40 (+1.77%) |
| Coinbase (COIN) | $346.17 | $352.00 (+1.68%) |
| Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) | $35.83 | $37.04 (+3.38%) |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | $18.61 | $19.02 (+2.20%) |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | $18.93 | $19.20 (+1.43%) |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $17.97 | $18.24 (+1.50%) |
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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