Prediction Market Polymarket Poised to Relaunch in US Within Days
Prediction market Polymarket is set to reopen to U.S. users, nearly four years after being effectively banned by the CFTC, and could do so as soon as tomorrow, regulatory filings show.
Polymarket, which operates a cryptocurrency-based prediction market on the Polygon network, has begun self-certifying its own event contracts, flexing its authority to do so through the CFTC-licensed exchange it acquired in July.
Polymarket acquired QCX LLC, which is now doing business as Polymarket US, for $112 million. By acquiring the company, Polymarket gained a Designated Contract Market license that grants it the ability to self-certify markets available to U.S. users.
After the acquisition, Polymarket had to wait a few weeks for the CFTC to issue a no action letter to say that it would not pursue enforcement over alleged violations for “swap data reporting and recordkeeping regulations.” When that letter arrived the first week of September, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said that was the company’s “green light to go live in the USA.”
Polymarket rose to prominence in the lead-up to the 2024 election, when users on the platform correctly predicted the reelection of President Donald Trump. Since then, prediction markets have caught fire, with both Polymarket and its largest competitor, Kalshi, pulling in hundreds of millions in weekly trading volume. More recently, Kalshi has pulled ahead in terms of market share, buoyed by its established presence in the U.S. through its own DCM license.
Now, Polymarket, DCM license in hand, is targeting those same coveted U.S.-based users, through regulated and self-certified markets.
Self-certification is the default way for CFTC-regulated firms to operate. Once a DCM holder submits a form explaining that its new market complies with all relevant law and regulations, the CFTC has one business day to object. If it doesn’t, the market can be listed right away.
But in this case, Polymarket US has explicitly said that the markets will be listed “no earlier than October 2, 2025.” The four filings include certifications for athletic event, athletic spread, and total athletic score contracts and election winner event contracts.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment on its relaunch from Decrypt.
But the company’s CEO had plenty to say about the changing regulatory landscape in the U.S. during a D.C. panel on Monday. Coplan appeared on a joint Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodities Futures Trading Commission panel with executives from Cboe Global Markets, Nasdaq, Kalshi, and Kraken.
“I think that it’s pretty clear with this administration that we want the regulators to cultivate DeFi,” he said, referring to the sort of decentralized financial activity that takes place natively on blockchain networks without third-party intermediaries. He added the caveat that he thinks innovators know better than regulators how to build smart contracts—that is, the software that runs crypto applications—that will provide investor protections.
“I think that puts the onus on us and other players in the space to go and get inventive and come up with solutions that both embody the spirit of the rules that you see in traditional financial regulation with what’s capable of the technology,” Caplan added.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Wall Street giants collectively raise rate hike forecasts, US Treasury futures continue to fall, gold drops over 1% to break 4000
After the US October CPI exceeded expectations, Goldman Sachs and Nomura added a forecast for an interest rate hike in March next year, while Deutsche Bank included a forecast for a rate hike in January next year. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with a 13% probability for a 50 basis point hike. On Wednesday, the US Treasury spot market was closed, but Treasury futures continued to fall, with corresponding yields rising by about 2 to 4 basis points, and spot gold came under pressure, dropping by 1.1%.
No Need to Worry About the Cooling Down of AI Data Center Construction? The US Import Boom Is Unlikely to Subside in the Short Term, Real Impact May Come in 2029
It takes an average of 4.8 years from finalizing investment to starting construction of a data center project, and an additional 2.6 years from construction start to becoming operational. Servers usually cannot be installed until after the building structure and racks are completed. For trade partners such as Taiwan (China), South Korea, and Mexico who rely on US data center supply chain demand, the inertia in construction timelines provides at least a one- to two-year buffer for future exports.
Federal Reserve Major Debate: When Should the Tenure of “Number Three” Williams End?
The main point of contention is whether Williams should step down in June 2028, upon completing a full 10-year term, or in June 2027, when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 65. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve Board holds ultimate discretion; if he leaves early, Fed Chair Waller would be able to assert greater control over the appointment to this critical position. However, forcing Williams to shorten his term could easily be interpreted as political manipulation. Williams himself is expected to serve until June 2028.
Sunshine Silver weighs doubling mill capacity
Crypto prices
More
