Economist: If the July non-farm payrolls are significantly revised downward, the US stock market will show a V-shaped trend during the day

Jason Tang, a senior economist at TradingKey, said that considering the trend of mutual offsetting in various industries, it is unlikely that the non-farm employment data for August will rise or fall significantly. We believe that the main risk of this non-farm employment report to the U.S. financial market lies not in the August data itself, but in whether the July data is facing a significant downward revision. If the data for July is significantly lowered, we expect the U.S. stock market to experience a sharp decline, followed by a rebound on the same day. Specifically, a significant downward revision will indicate a weak labor market, prompting investors to participate in "economic slowdown trading." This may lead to a softening of U.S. stock index futures in pre-market trading, followed by a decline in U.S. stocks at the opening. Subsequently, "economic slowdown trading" may evolve into "rate cut trading," ultimately driving U.S. stocks to rebound from intraday lows.