Around $120 billion has exited crypto markets over the past 24 hours, dropping total capitalization to a two-week low of $3.86 trillion during early trading in Asia on Wednesday.
Bitcoin fell below $113,000 to its lowest level for 17 days while Ethereum dipped below $4,100, eroding all of last week’s gains.
The market sell-off is in preparation for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, and is “essentially pricing in a hawkish tone,” said Bitcoin author Jason Williams on Wednesday.
Crypto Markets Seeking Confirmation
He added that markets now believe rate cuts are no longer a guarantee for September, and if Powell hints that they may not be implemented, the bearishness will likely continue. However, “if Powell comes in soft and leans that rate cuts are likely, we turbo rip,” he said.
If there are no rate reductions for September, “it’ll be an ugly 4-6 weeks until we have clarity for October potential cuts.”
“Market HATES uncertainty and we are seeing that in the price action right now.”
The probability of a Sept. 17 rate cut is still a high 85% according to the CME Fed Watch Tool, which is based on futures markets. However, this could drop sharply if Powell is hawkish on Friday.
President Trump, who has been highly critical of the central bank chair, calling him “too late,” said, “There is no inflation, and every sign is pointing to a major rate cut.”
“We are in this uncomfortable equilibrium, where we don’t know where things go next,” Gennadiy Goldberg, chief rates strategist at TD Securities, told the Financial Times on Tuesday.
“The market wants a bit of confirmation from Powell on Friday as to whether he is open to cutting rates.”
A lower interest rate environment means cheaper borrowing and more liquidity available for risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Crypto Sentiment Flickers
Crypto sentiment is very volatile and flips in minutes, observed Bitcoin Magazine founder David Bailey, who said :
“One of the most hilarious aspects of Bitcoin is sentiment. It flickers like a flame. One moment euphoria, moments later panic. Many Bitcoin have exchanged hands through such emotions.”
Meanwhile, Santiment reported that retail traders have “done a complete 180 after Bitcoin has failed to rally and dipped below $113K.” It noted that the past 24 hours have marked the most “bearish sentiment seen on social media” since geopolitical conflict in the Middle East caused panic selling in late June.
BTC had recovered slightly to trade at $113,520 at the time of writing as its next direction hinges on Friday’s Fed speech.
