Bitcoin’s ‘mid-cycle strength’: Tuur Demeester predicts $500k target and historic institutional bull run

A new report from Bitcoin veteran Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research argues that the current market phase may be “quiet strength” for Bitcoin; a mid-cycle stage in what could become one of the “most significant bull runs” in Bitcoin’s history.

How to position for the Bitcoin boom

The report, titled ‘How to Position for the Bitcoin Boom’, led by Bitcoin economist and early investor Tuur Demeester, projects that there’s still potential for a 4–10x price appreciation from current levels, which would mean targets above $500,000 per BTC in the years ahead:

“We think this is the mid-cycle in what could become one of the most significant bull runs in bitcoin’s history. From its current range, we believe there is still a path toward a 4-10x value appreciation, which would imply bitcoin price targets north of $500,000.”

Several indicators support this thesis, as on-chain trends suggest a deep conviction among experienced holders. For example, according to the report, larger investors (whales) are holding, not dumping. The HODLer Net Position Change shows no sign of large-scale capitulation so far in 2025, a behavior commonly associated with market peaks.

“Whales have been moving some coins in the last two years, when bitcoin re-tested previous all-time highs during a tumultuous US election. However, nowhere in 2025 have HODLers been net movers of over 100,000 coins in a day, which historically has been indicative of selling activity during late stage exuberance.”

Another metric is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which suggests that 50–70% of the Bitcoin supply sits in unrealized profit. This is more consistent with healthy, mid-cycle optimism rather than late-stage euphoria.

Potential headwinds remain low-probability

The report outlines possible catalysts for a correction but sees limited risk of them derailing the bull market. For example, a major hack could dent confidence, yet past examples barely impacted the BTC price:

“We think only in extreme cases could a hack actually arrest or end the bitcoin bull market. When 120,000 bitcoin was stolen from Bitfinex in 2016, it barely registered in the price.”

Moreover, Mt. Gox and bankruptcy coin distributions have been absorbed quickly by market demand, with a July 2025 liquidation of 80,000 BTC moving prices just 4%.

A massive 10% of the Bitcoin supply is reportedly being held by Coinbase, which could pose a centralization risk. However, ETF issuers have begun diversifying their custody options, and custody seizures have low odds under the current U.S. administration, which is actively integrating Bitcoin into its financial policy.

While a macro crash could cause short-term volatility, the report expects Bitcoin to resume outperforming commodities and inflation over the longer term.

Tuur Demeester is firm: Bitcoin over altcoins

The report makes a clean break from its 2015 advice to keep a small altcoin allocation, instead recommending holding Bitcoin exclusively and avoiding scattering capital across “vastly inferior” projects that lack its network effect, security model, and monetary purity.

The authors compare BTC’s role to the base layer of the internet, a singular, dominant protocol, and predict rivals like Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will lose relevance over time.

Tuur Demeester singles out “long-term store of value” demand as the core engine of Bitcoin’s current and future growth. This is driven by several factors, including persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, bonds losing their decades-long safe-haven status, real estate’s diminishing appeal as a hedge, and capital rotation toward liquid, low-counterparty-risk assets.

After El Salvador’s 2021 legal tender move, U.S. adoption has accelerated under pro-Bitcoin policies from the Trump administration, such as the creation of a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, supportive legislation like the GENIUS Act, and rapid uptake of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now hold around 1.4 million BTC.

Such aggressive moves by the U.S. are pushing other nations to explore their own Bitcoin strategies. As the report points out:

“These strong endorsements are beginning to cause a global ripple effect.”

When it comes to how much Bitcoin investors should allocate to their portfolios, several factors should be considered, such as risk tolerance and conviction levels. According to the report, a 5% allocation serves as insurance against systemic risks, whereas doubling that to 10% is seen as a speculative hedge in a diversified portfolio. Holders with a 20–50% allocation signal their high conviction and “early retirement” play.

When it comes to custody, the report favors collaborative multi-signature setups as the best balance between self-sovereignty and operational safety, especially for new adopters.

Mid-cycle, not the peak

Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research see Bitcoin’s current bull market as far from over, with institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and strong holder conviction setting the stage for potentially historic gains.

This is “mid-cycle,” not the peak, and if Bitcoin delivers on its store-of-value promise, the next few years could redefine its place in the global financial system.