Powell Faces Unprecedented Pressure Ahead of GDP and Employment Data Release

According to Jinse Finance, against a complex backdrop of mounting political pressure, shifting trade policies, and conflicting economic signals, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will convene for a policy meeting next week. This decision coincides with a rare data-heavy week— the U.S. government will successively release GDP figures, employment reports, and the Fed’s preferred core inflation indicator. While markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady once again, this series of data releases could reshape the policy outlook. Economists predict that the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter, to be announced next Wednesday, could reach 2.4% (a significant improvement from the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter), mainly due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit. The July nonfarm payroll report, to be released on Friday, is expected to confirm that businesses are becoming more cautious in hiring. After a surge in education sector employment boosted June’s figures, job gains this month are likely to slow, with the unemployment rate possibly edging up to 4.2%. The U.S. government’s June personal income and outlays report is expected to show that the Fed’s favored core inflation indicator accelerated slightly month-on-month, indicating that tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumers.