Goldman Sachs: Trump Administration Expected to Raise Base Tariff Rate to 15%

Odaily Planet Daily reports that David Mericle, Chief US Economist at Goldman Sachs, expects the baseline “reciprocal” US tariff rate to rise from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and critical minerals reaching as high as 50%—a move that could intensify inflationary pressures and dampen economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate “initial observations” of the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth. The bank has revised its 2025 core inflation forecast down from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and increased its 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over the next 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%. (Jin10)