Institutions: Short-term Risks for US CPI Data Remain Tilted to the Upside

According to ChainCatcher, Anthony Willis, Senior Economist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, pointed out that although inflation in the United States is relatively moderate, the current level remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and short-term risks are still skewed to the upside.

He stated, "The current data will keep the Federal Reserve in a 'wait-and-see' mode during the release of the July and August CPI data, until the next policy meeting on September 17." By then, the Fed should be able to more clearly assess the transmission effects of tariffs on inflation and obtain further evidence of labor market weakness. Willis believes that inflation is likely to move toward 3%, but given its dual mandate, the Fed may still see the need to cut rates later this year.