CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve Will Cut Rates No More Than Twice This Year

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to a research report by CITIC Securities, U.S. inflation in June largely maintained a "calm and stable" state, with core CPI growth coming in below expectations for the fifth consecutive month, mainly due to cooling rent inflation and used car prices. This softer core inflation reading does not support the hypothesis that "tariffs have only a minor impact on inflation." In fact, our tracking indicators, such as the "CPI with high import content," show that tariffs have already begun to affect the prices of U.S. import-sensitive end consumer goods. We still believe there are concerns about a rebound in U.S. inflation, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July is low, and there may be at most two rate cuts this year. The room for continued weakness in the U.S. dollar may be limited, and the current attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as an allocation may still not be strong. (Jin10)