Bitcoin climbs to $117k as volatility spikes across markets after compression
Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain and derivatives markets reflect compressed volatility and a tightening supply while registering new all-time highs, according to Glassnode.
A July 10 report indicated that the Accumulation Trend Score has shown steady investor buying since June, with the price remaining within a narrow band. The report came hours ahead of Bitcoin exploding into price discovery above $112,000.
As of press time, it was trading at $116,000 after hitting a new all-time high of $117,500.
Long-term holders continue to add to balances, with supply growth outpacing miner issuance. This reflects a preference to hold coins until a clear price move occurs.
Entities holding under 100 BTC have added 19,300 BTC per month, exceeding the 13,400 BTC per month issuance, thereby absorbing new supply into longer-term holdings.
Realized volatility across 1-week to 6-month windows is near the lowest levels recorded since December 2022. Only 6% of trading days since then have seen a tighter 30-day price range, while just 0.4% have shown a narrower 60-day range.
This multi-scale compression indicates that volatility has contracted, forming a coiled structure where modest demand shifts can drive large price movements.
At-the-money implied volatility in options markets has declined across all timeframes, with percentile ranks in the lowest decile since late 2022.
Derivatives and ETF flows
Options markets are not pricing for high volatility, a condition that has historically preceded directional price moves when liquidity is thin.
Glassnode’s Realized Supply Density metric indicated that 19% of the supply is positioned within a 10% band around the current price. Small price movements can significantly impact unrealized profitability for a large share of holders, thereby increasing the potential for reactive trading once the price breaks out.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US now hold a record $137 billion in assets under management (AUM), representing 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
While net inflows slowed to $144 million last week, steady demand has moved supply into regulated investment products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now holds 55% of total ETF AUM and dominates ETF options open interest, with its cost basis closely aligning with broader market positioning models.
The report concluded that Bitcoin’s all-time highs occur within an environment of low realized volatility, tight liquidity, and heavy on-chain accumulation, creating conditions where volatility builds quietly across markets while prices hold near record levels.
The post Bitcoin climbs to $117k as volatility spikes across markets after compression appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Hashrate orders are booming, why is "AI trading" falling out of favor? JPMorgan reveals the time lag between AI investment and productivity realization
Joseph Lupton from the JP Morgan Global Economic Research Team pointed out in a research report on November 10 that recent improvements in labor productivity have been driven more by capital deepening and increased intensity of factor utilization. The broad efficiency gains from AI, resulting from process reconstruction, data integration, and organizational adjustments, will still take time to materialize. This means orders for chips, servers, and electrical equipment may grow first, but continuous investment returns for computing power operators and end users may not arrive at the same pace.
AI investment enters the "Trough of Disillusionment", the next 18 months will be a life-or-death test!
Goldman Sachs believes that the AI investment cycle is currently in the "trough of disillusionment," but this is not the first time. The core contradiction lies in the fact that the business models of new cloud computing providers are highly dependent on end-user returns from AI spending, while currently "there are basically zero companies that can attribute profits to AI." Social Capital founder Palihapitiya has clearly defined an 18-month key window, during which the market will decide which AI business models are sustainable and which are not.
Anthropic's Core Concern: Revenue Can Be Withdrawn at Any Time, but Computing Power Costs Are Locked in for up to 20 Years
Zheshang Securities believes that Anthropic's revenue is mainly based on usage-based billing, with remaining performance obligations covering only about 5.1 months of annualized revenue, while compute power costs are already locked in with $895.4 billion in irrevocable commitments, some extending as far as 2045. Revenues can be reduced at any time, but costs are non-exitable, creating a highly asymmetric maturity gap between the two—this is the company's real core constraint.
Triple Pressure from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Congress; Goldman Sachs: Liquidity Crisis May Occur in 2027
Goldman Sachs warns that the reserve ratio of bank assets has dropped to around 11%, only slightly above the crisis trough of 2019. In the second half of 2027, a deadlock in debt ceiling negotiations will force the Treasury to rebuild the TGA, triggering a "perfect storm" of a sharp drop in reserves and a surge in T-bill supply; combined with stalled money market fund buying, this will create a huge liquidity black hole. The Federal Reserve could be forced into the awkward position of lowering interest rates and launching large-scale bond purchases to rescue the market.
Crypto prices
More
