NVDA Hits New All-Time High, But AI Tokens Decline — The Fading “NVDA Effect” in Crypto

In 2025, the correlation between NVDA stock and AI-related tokens in the crypto market has become increasingly tenuous. Despite NVDA’s recent rise to become the most valuable company in the world, investor enthusiasm for AI tokens remains muted.

This divergence raises a critical question: Is this a sign of the AI token sector’s decline or a signal of growing maturity in the AI crypto market? Here’s a closer look.

Nvidia Becomes the World’s Most Valuable Company—But AI Tokens Struggle

On June 26, NVDA stock surpassed $154, breaking past its previous peak at the end of 2024 and setting a new all-time high.

According to data from CompaniesMarketCap, NVDA’s market capitalization has exceeded $3.7 trillion. This surge is fueled by the persistent demand for graphics processing units (GPUs), essential for AI applications. As a result, Nvidia now ranks as the most valuable company globally, second only to gold in total market value.

Top Assets by Market Cap. Source: CompaniesMarketCap

In the past month, NVDA shares have climbed over 13.5%. In contrast, the AI token market—comprising cryptocurrencies tied to blockchain-based AI projects—has dropped more than 28% during the same period, according to CoinMarketCap.

AI Sector Capitalization in The Crypto Market. Source: CoinmarketCap

This sharp divergence casts doubt on the assumed connection between NVDA’s performance and the price movements of AI tokens. While a previous BeInCrypto report noted a weak correlation, recent developments suggest it may now be nearly nonexistent.

Historically, NVDA stock performance has often served as a bellwether for AI-related assets, including crypto tokens. Nvidia GPUs are crucial in training AI models, and the company’s earnings reports have previously triggered parallel movements in AI token prices.

For instance, in March, AI tokens surged with double-digit gains ahead of Nvidia’s Q4 earnings. By May, however, despite Nvidia reporting a 69% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue, the AI token sector posted only a modest 0.6% gain.

This trend points to a gradual and noticeable weakening in the correlation between the two asset classes. The so-called “NVDA effect” on AI crypto appears to have faded.

AI Crypto Predictions Fail to Materialize

Analysts have identified several factors behind this divergence. Chief among them is the speculative nature of many AI crypto projects.

James Ross, founder of Mode Network, predicted in October 2024 that AI agents would account for over 80% of blockchain transactions within six to twelve months. Eight months later, this vision remains unfulfilled. Many AI agent projects have yet to demonstrate real-world utility.

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao also weighed in during March 2025. He emphasized practical use over token creation:

“While crypto is the currency for AI, not every agent needs its own token… Launch a coin only if you have scale. Focus on utility, not tokens,” CZ said.

This sentiment reflects a broader shift toward fundamentals. Investors are now gravitating toward projects like Bittensor, NEAR, and Filecoin—platforms that offer practical applications such as decentralized AI model training, blockchain infrastructure, and decentralized storage.

The decoupling of NVDA and AI tokens may signal a maturing market. While NVDA continues to benefit from concrete demand for AI hardware, AI-related tokens must prove their real-world value to regain investor confidence.