CryptoQuant: Bitcoin May Continue Its Positive Cycle, Marking a Third Consecutive Bullish Year-End

Cryptoquant analyst Carmelo_Alemán released a market analysis stating that on-chain analysis uses indicators such as MVRV, UTXO value bands, and exchange reserves to interpret blockchain data from both micro and macro perspectives. These tools help us understand on-chain dynamics and guide informed decision-making. However, while the constant search for micro signals to infer macro trends is often useful, it can sometimes obscure the cyclical forces that truly drive Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior.
“Bitcoin Annual Percentage Trend” addresses this issue by showing Bitcoin’s yearly performance since 2011, revealing a regular cycle: three years of growth followed by one year of consolidation, which coincides with Bitcoin’s four-year halving rhythm. The significance of this growth cycle lies in the fact that, according to this indicator, if Bitcoin maintains the typical pace of the third year in the cycle, it could grow by about 120% in 2025. Starting from $93,226, this would push the price to $205,097, potentially marking the cycle top for this year.
If this logic holds, 2025 is likely to close as the third consecutive bullish year, thus completing another positive cycle. This indicates that we are in the final stage of the current cycle, which is of strategic importance for investors seeking to align with Bitcoin’s multi-year structure. This behavior is also supported by other cyclical indicators, such as Realized Cap, which is expected to continue reaching new all-time highs in 2025. Taking a long-term perspective with the “Bitcoin Annual Percentage Trend” helps investors remain calm amid short-term volatility.