QCP: Bitcoin Volatility Declines, Unlikely to Significantly Break Current Range Without Clear Catalyst

QCP released a briefing stating, "The unexpected rise in job vacancies has boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index approaching the psychologically significant 6000-point mark ahead of Friday's key non-farm payroll data release. Stable non-farm payroll data will reinforce the Federal Reserve's narrative of labor market resilience, strengthening market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. In terms of trade, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating the expected meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump. Bitcoin (BTC) short-term volatility has decreased, with spot prices holding near the familiar $105,000 level; the 1-month implied volatility has dropped below 40 volatility. In the interest rate market, trading volumes for China's 10-year and 30-year government bond futures have fallen to their lowest levels since February, reflecting broader risk aversion and a wait-and-see stance. Bitcoin continues to range trade, with light positions and normalized skew indicating a lack of clear directional conviction in the market. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from the mid to far end, reflecting a downward trend similar to the VIX index and prompting some investors to engage in opportunistic long volatility trades. Notably, the $130,000 call options expiring in September traded at 47 volatility, showing localized interest in upside before the third quarter. Looking ahead, the third quarter may be more challenging. Tariff-related impacts may begin to seep into macro data, while fiscal risks surrounding the 'Build Back Better' (BBB) and debt ceiling could trigger potential news-driven volatility. In the absence of clear catalysts, Bitcoin is unlikely to significantly break out of the current range."