Bank of America: Tariffs Have a More Significant Negative Impact on the US Economy and the Dollar
Analysts at Bank of America point out that compared to other countries and currencies, U.S. tariffs have a more significant negative impact on the U.S. economy and the dollar. The bank believes that tariffs could trigger retaliatory measures, and since the scale of U.S. trade with the world exceeds that of other countries' trade with the U.S., it is more susceptible to shocks. Data will determine the fate of the dollar: if U.S. economic indicators improve, investors may begin to ignore policy noise and support the dollar; however, Bank of America expects the data to be weak, as policy uncertainty has already led to a halt in corporate hiring and investment plans, compounded by persistently high tariffs. Additionally, fiscal easing may drive up borrowing costs.
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EIA expects Brent crude spot prices to remain at $100 per barrel for the rest of the year and raises the average price forecasts for this year and next.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for average Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 to $97 and $86, respectively, reflecting pressures from global inventory declines, Middle East supply disruptions, and rising transportation costs. As oil production in the Middle East gradually recovers and global inventories rebound from low levels, the EIA expects the average spot price of Brent crude to fall to $87 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027, and further decline to $77 per barrel by the fourth quarter.

