Fed's Mouthpiece: "Excellent" Inflation Report Conceals Two Major Concerns, Last Year's Low Base Effect Needs Caution
According to Jinshi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that today's "excellent" inflation report has two potential issues to watch out for:
- Analysts expect that with the implementation of "Liberation Day" tariffs, the increase in commodity prices will accelerate in May (especially in June).
- Given that inflation has already cooled by mid-2024, the year-on-year base itself is no longer advantageous (Note: The U.S. core PCE price index annual rate recorded 2.5% in April, the lowest since March 2021).
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EIA expects Brent crude spot prices to remain at $100 per barrel for the rest of the year and raises the average price forecasts for this year and next.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for average Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 to $97 and $86, respectively, reflecting pressures from global inventory declines, Middle East supply disruptions, and rising transportation costs. As oil production in the Middle East gradually recovers and global inventories rebound from low levels, the EIA expects the average spot price of Brent crude to fall to $87 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027, and further decline to $77 per barrel by the fourth quarter.

