Analyst: Upward Revision of U.S. GDP Won't Change Fed's Wait-and-See Stance
Granite Bay analyst Paul Stanley stated that the upward revision of the US first-quarter GDP data might not change the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance. He expects the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts this fall and mentioned that in the last few months of 2025, the Federal Reserve might cut rates 1 to 2 times. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), this expectation aligns with market pricing. The second estimate of the US first-quarter GDP shows a 0.2% economic contraction, narrowing from the previously announced 0.3% contraction. (Jin10)
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for average Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 to $97 and $86, respectively, reflecting pressures from global inventory declines, Middle East supply disruptions, and rising transportation costs. As oil production in the Middle East gradually recovers and global inventories rebound from low levels, the EIA expects the average spot price of Brent crude to fall to $87 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027, and further decline to $77 per barrel by the fourth quarter.
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