Citi: Tariff Suppression Effects May Fully Emerge in the Second Half, Global Economic Growth May Slow to 2.3%
Citi economists noted in a report that due to the impact of tariffs, global economic growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025. The bank's economists stated: "Part of the reason for the resilience of the global economy is that U.S. tariffs have only been implemented gradually, so the full impact of their suppressive effect has yet to be seen." They indicated that the full impact might become apparent in the second half of this year.
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EIA expects Brent crude spot prices to remain at $100 per barrel for the rest of the year and raises the average price forecasts for this year and next.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for average Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 to $97 and $86, respectively, reflecting pressures from global inventory declines, Middle East supply disruptions, and rising transportation costs. As oil production in the Middle East gradually recovers and global inventories rebound from low levels, the EIA expects the average spot price of Brent crude to fall to $87 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027, and further decline to $77 per barrel by the fourth quarter.
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