Goldman Sachs lowers US economic growth forecast, raises recession forecast

Goldman Sachs: lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 0.5%, and raised the probability of a 12-month recession from 35% to 45%, due to a sharp tightening of the financial environment, resistance from foreign consumers, and continued soaring policy uncertainty, which may suppress capital spending, potentially exceeding our previous assumptions.