Institutions: US slowdown more likely than recession

Tariffs will be a headwind for U.S. growth, but a slowdown is more likely than a contraction, says Comerica's Bill Adams. The impact of tariffs will be partially offset by the tax cuts being discussed in Congress. He believes that overall fiscal policy through 2026 ‘will be more supportive of economic growth than financial markets expect.’ Much also depends on whether the tariffs are seen as permanent or can be removed based on negotiations with U.S. trading partners. The real economic risk is that other countries begin to mimic the U.S. in raising tariffs.