Crypto markets slump as latest US inflation data weighs on sentiment

Cryptocurrency markets extended this week's capital bleed as the global digital asset capitalization fell 5% to $2.84 trillion on Friday, following more macroeconomic data showing slightly higher inflation in the U.S.

Numbers for the Core Personal Consumer Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s go-to inflation indicator — came in hotter than expected. U.S. Core PCE for February rose to 0.4% month-over-month, beating the 0.3% forecast from analysts. Yearly Core PCE also surpassed expectations, rising to 2.8% against an estimated 2.7% increase.

Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told The Block that Friday’s PCE outcome was conservative despite the upbeat inflation data.

"While this isn’t exactly bullish for risk assets, it’s also not overtly bearish — it lands slightly on the cautious side of neutral," Mena said. "Even so, markets are holding up well. SP 500 futures are steady and continue to trade comfortably above the key psychological support level of 5700."

Conversely, crypto leaders like ether, SOL and XRP fell further after an already difficult trading day. ETH dropped to $1,880, SOL dipped below $130, and XRP revisited $2.19, according to The Block’s price page . The GMCI 30 Index tracking crypto’s top 30 assets retraced 5.5%.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, retraced modestly compared to altcoins. The price of bitcoin changed hands around $84,200 at time of writing, down 3.6%.

"Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its resilience," Mena said. "This is precisely the type of macro environment it was built for: a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant asset that can weather all market cycles and protect portfolios through times of uncertainty."

Q2 uncertain but bullish signs persist

Crypto assets retained macro sensitivity heading into the year’s second quarter. Data shows that past cycles have delivered relief for Bitcoin in the second quarter, but analysts said changing trade and policy landscapes could mean this time is different.

"Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a higher degree of correlation with traditional risk assets during Q1 (where we peak in correlation) while in Q2, it can react more to geopolitical events and policy shifts," Bitfinex analysts wrote in a report. "While Q2 has often been a bullish period for Bitcoin, the present macroeconomic environment—characterized by trade tensions and inflationary concerns—suggests that heightened sensitivity may persist."

Mena said incoming regulatory clarity represented by new leadership at the Securities and Exchange Commission and momentum with stablecoin rules may alter investor sentiment in the coming months. The White House publicly backing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve also paints a bullish picture.

"Crypto is no longer a fringe issue — it’s a central part of the policy conversation," Mena said. "As the regulatory picture continues to improve and geopolitical risks begin to cool, the stage may be set for digital assets to reenter a period of sustained growth and broader adoption."

Despite recent volatility and market turbulence, Mena expects Bitcoin to nearly double by the end of 2025.

"Looking ahead, several key catalysts could reignite momentum across the digital asset space — potentially pushing Bitcoin out of its current consolidation zone and through major resistance levels at $90K, $95K, and $100K," Mena said. "A breakout above those levels could open the door for a run past its previous all-time high of $108.5K, with a potential move toward $150K by year-end."