Ethereum price will stick below $3.5K until these 3 things happen

Ether ( ETH ) price fell below $3,500 on Jan. 7 and has since struggled to trade above that level. The altcoin has declined by 8% over the past 30 days, while the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 6%. This underperformance is concerning for Ether investors, especially with the launch of the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in July 2024.

Traders' disappointment comes after a period of average Ethereum transaction fees exceeding $2, steady growth in the ETH supply, significant criticism regarding the lack of support from the Ethereum Foundation , and memecoin trading shifting to competitor blockchains, particularly Solana. 

Three factors could potentially push Ether above $3,500, although some depend on external elements such as regulatory changes.

Pectra upgrade, changes in US ETF regulation and layer-2 growth

The initial excitement brought by the election of the crypto-friendly United States President Donald Trump quickly faded after the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin on the Solana network. The token traded over $12 billion in volume during the first 48 hours, and its market capitalization rose above $14 billion, leading to a substantial influx of new users on Solana.

President Trump endorsed the TRUMP memecoin through social media posts, surprising Ether investors since previous non-fungible tokens (NFTs) related to Trump’s conglomerate had been launched on Ethereum. However, Ether’s price was already underperforming after increasing by 26.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, while the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization grew by 44.6%.

Ether’s bearish momentum follows increased competition in onchain activity and deposits. 

For example, Solana became the leading blockchain in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, while Tron captured a 28% market share in the stablecoin sector. Additionally, Ethereum's significant investment in layer-2 scalability using rollups had unintended effects, such as relatively empty blocks.

For Ether to surpass the $3,500 resistance level, investors need greater clarity on the effects of the upcoming Pectra upgrade , scheduled for the first quarter of 2025. The proposed changes introduce a unified framework for enhanced interoperability, secure wallet transitions, and simplified storage management. Ether investors believe that, despite good intentions, the development pace is insufficient to generate adequate fees from the layer-2 ecosystem. 

Consequently, the upgrade will unlikely provide a significant positive impact on Ethereum's native staking yield or base layer scalability. As long as competing chains continue to extract more value from their users, the ETH price will remain under pressure.

Another concern for Ether bulls is the total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum layer-2 solutions, which declined by 25% after reaching an all-time high of $65.3 billion on Dec. 8, 2024. Despite increased activity, competition for the Ethereum ecosystem is intensifying from all directions, not just from BNB Chain and Solana. For example, Hyperliquid Chain has attracted $1.2 billion in deposits for its perpetual futures exchange .

Similarly, competition for users and deposits has emerged from networks such as SUI, Aptos, and TON. While these may not pose a direct threat, they are well-funded and target niche markets like Web3 gaming, social networks, digital collectibles, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Ultimately, data shows that Ethereum's higher security is not the main driver for adoption.

Ether’s success depends on spot Ether ETF inflows, which have not seen $150 million or higher inflows since Jan. 16. Institutional demand for ETH-listed instruments has been disappointing, partly due to the lack of staking capability . Therefore, regulatory changes and the eventual approval of spot Ether ETF options on CME and CBOE could support the Ether price.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.