Polymarket predicts a 58% probability that Trump will create a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of taking office

According to Polymarket data, the probability on the platform that Trump will create a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of inauguration has surged to 58%, while yesterday's same period Yes probability was only 43%.

The market expects there is a 42% chance that Trump will sign more than 40 executive orders on his first day; Kalshi implies the market expects Trump to sign around 40.4 executive orders on his inaugural day. Among them, immigration, tariffs, diplomacy and energy are expected to be the main focus areas of Trump's policies on his inauguration day.

In addition, it is widely expected in the market that Trump's presidential executive power will be greatly strengthened in his second term. Kalshi shows that there is a 77% chance that Trump will declare a state of emergency within his first hundred days policy.