Solana meme coin ai16z price rebounds: is this a dead cat bounce?

Ai16z, a popular Solana meme coin, rebounded on Friday after crashing almost 50% from its highest level this month.

Ai16z price rose to $1.6830, up 32% from its lowest level this week, bringing its market cap to over $1.84 billion.

The token, the third-biggest Solana (SOL) meme coin, rose as on-chain data showed that some whales bought the recent dip. Nansen data indicates that one whale purchased tokens worth over $1.58 million on Friday, anticipating a bounce back. That trader now holds ai16z tokens valued at over $2.8 million.

Two other whales bought tokens worth over $1 million, while ten more acquired coins valued at over $500,000 during the same period. This activity suggests that these traders expect the meme coin to recover once the current selling phase ends.

However, more data shows that smart money investors have continued to offload ai16z tokens in recent weeks. The number of smart money holders has dropped to fewer than 80, down from 118 on December 25. Historically, changes in smart money behavior have often been reliable indicators of an impending price decline.

ai16z smart money investors | Source: Nansen

Meanwhile, some of the most profitable ai16z traders have started to take profits. The second and third most profitable traders have sold nearly all of their tokens, realizing $39 million and $20 million in profits, respectively. The most profitable ai16z trader has also sold tokens worth $8.8 million and holds an unrealized profit of $30 million.

Solana meme coin ai16z profit leaders | Source: Nansen

Is the ai16z price rebound a dead cat bounce?

Ai16z chart | source: crypto.news

The ongoing ai16z price rebound could be a dead cat bounce — a situation where an asset in a downtrend briefly recovers before resuming its decline.

The token has retested the critical level at $1.7177 on the four-hour chart. This is an important point, as it was the neckline of the double-top pattern at $2.35. A double-top pattern is a well-known bearish indicator, while a break-and-retest formation often signals a continuation of the trend.

Additionally, the ai16z price has fallen below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, unless the token breaks above the 50-period moving average at $1.7490, there is a risk of a continued downtrend. If this rebound proves to be a dead cat bounce, the next level to watch will be this week’s low of $1.2663.