CICC Research Report: Non-farm data supports the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates

The CICC research report states that after severe hindrances from hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the United States increased significantly to 227,000 in November. However, the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. Overall, the labor market is still in a state of "weakening job growth momentum, but not weak employment market itself", which will provide reasons for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

At the same time, it is predicted that The Fed will slow down its pace of interest rate cuts by 2025 because as interest rates approach neutral levels, decision-makers will become more cautious. One risk prediction is Trump's proposed immigration policy impact on labor markets; currently leaning towards moderate impacts but extreme scenarios need close monitoring too. Based on non-farm data, it is believed that The Fed may again cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month.