The probability of a 25BP Fed rate cut in November is 96.2% after the release of “small non-farm payrolls” and U.S. GDP data

October 30, according to the CME “Fed Watch”: the probability that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in November is 96.2%, the probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged is 3.8% (99% and 1% before the data release). The probability of keeping current rates unchanged through December is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut is 29.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut is 69.6% (0.5%, 22.9%, and 76.6%, respectively, before the data release).