Analysis: Ultra-short-term options have an IV of 70% and puts have a significantly higher IV

Adam, Macro Researcher at Greeks.live, posted an analysis on the X-platform that the Fed's interest rate resolution is out in three hours, and the current projection based on the futures data is that there is a 60% probability that it will be a 50 bps cut, and a 40% probability that it will be a 25 bps cut. All markets are focused on this. Looking at cryptocurrency options data, the market is now equally divided, with IVs as high as 70% for ultra-short-term options and significantly higher IVs for puts. The distribution of option trades shows that the BTC58000 puts and ETH2200 puts are the most densely traded, and the options market is now bearish on the rate meeting as a whole. 25 bps is less than expected, and 50 bps signals a deterioration in economic indicators.