Fed Preview: July meeting may disappoint doves, Powell will only give preliminary hints of a rate cut in September

The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, but a big question for the FOMC meeting from July 30 to 31 is: How clear will the FOMC signal be?

Foreign media economists such as Anna Wong believe that communication at the July meeting will only provide an initial hint of a rate cut in September. Fed Chairman Powell will point out that "if data develops as we expect", there may be a rate cut. Economists believe that the main reason for hesitation is simply that there are still plenty of data to be released before the FOMC meeting on September 17-18 - two inflation and employment reports are due before then, and data could change significantly. The best time to clearly hint at a September rate cut would be Powell's speech at Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting at the end of August, by which time he would have another month's worth of employment and inflation data.

Economists' expectations for the FOMC meeting from July 30 to 31 are: Despite many Wall Street analysts calling for interest cuts, it is expected that FOMC will unanimously decide to keep rates unchanged between 5.25% -5.50%. Inflation data since June’s FOMC meeting has been encouraging while economic activity data has been slightly worrying. Overall, it is likely that committee believes risks balance roughly equally between its two goals—price stability and full employment.