US CPI data release will not lead to a surge in Bitcoin volatility
Tomorrow's US inflation report will be the focus, as investors look for signals on the Fed's interest rate path. A recent series of unexpected events has weakened expectations of a rate cut. However, the pricing of Bitcoin options indicates that traders do not expect a significant increase in volatility after the report is released. Institutional liquidity provider OrBit Markets said, "The market's pricing premium for this event is almost negligible," and noted that the volatility of Bitcoin prices after the CPI report may be less than 2%, with almost no additional volatility, while SP 500 options pricing reflects relatively high volatility. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has considered Bitcoin options expiring later this week. His analysis is consistent with OrBit's: "The implied volatility of options expiring on May 17 is 52.8%, only 2% higher than other options, which means traders expect moderate volatility to increase after the CPI is released. However, the realized (historical) volatility is still below 50%, which means that expectations of a significant increase or decrease are not reflected in the price."
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
If Jensen Huang resigns, who could take over Nvidia? AMD's Lisa Su included in media candidates
AMD CEO Lisa Su, who holds a Ph.D. from MIT and led AMD back to growth while rebuilding customer trust during a crisis, is seen as a potential candidate. However, the competitive relationship between AMD and NVIDIA adds complexity to the succession process. Arm CEO Rene Haas, who worked at NVIDIA for seven years, is considered a smoother option for succession.
SoftBank reports first quarterly loss in two years! $3.7 billion impairment in US data center project, AI investments face pressure
SoftBank Group reported a net loss of 1.12 trillion yen in its second fiscal quarter, marking its first quarterly loss in nearly two years. The main reasons are the write-off of nearly $3.7 billion in advance payments due to adjustments in the procurement of power supply equipment for its AI data center in Ohio, USA, a shift of the Vision Fund from profit to loss, and a surge in the cost of high-debt financing. Since the June peak, SoftBank's share price has fallen more than 50%.
Expanding computing power on one hand, grabbing spectrum on the other! Barclays optimistic about SpaceX (SPCX.US) acquiring T-Mobile: Complementary advantages of ground networks and Starlink
After Space's stock price rose for two consecutive days, Barclays stated that T-Mobile is the "cleanest" choice among SpaceX’s potential acquisition targets. Barclays considers Verizon a major unknown, while AT&T has the lowest strategic fit.
Will the Federal Reserve raise rates in December? Tonight's CPI will be the final verdict!
The October CPI data will be released tonight, with the market pricing in an 86% chance of a rate hike. Goldman Sachs predicts a core CPI month-on-month increase of only 0.16%, much lower than market expectations. However, statistical distortions in health insurance and declines in used car prices—these "soft factors"—are unlikely to be reflected in the core PCE, which the Federal Reserve places greater emphasis on. The data may trigger a relief rally, but it is unlikely to change the underlying hawkish sentiment.
Crypto prices
More
