QCP Capital Market Update – 7 Mar 24
Even after the leveraged flush out 2 days ago, markets continue to be well supported. BTC has bounced back above 66k from close to 59k lows and ETH continues to break highs of this year.
The retail speculative frenzy is far from over though. Memecoins like WIF and BONK continue to pump, Altcoin funding rates are still over 50% ann. and funding rates on retail-focused exchanges like Binance and Bybit continue to be higher than Deribit.
Also, the spot-forward spread keeps getting higher and richer! This has been the most popular trade on the desk by a mile. One can now lock in 15% ann. risk-free for the whole year out to Dec 2024. One would be hard pressed to find a trade with better risk-reward.
BTC spot ETF continues to see consistently large inflows, averaging $550m daily. We believe this demand will keep the crypto uptrend in place. On Monday, Blackrock submitted an application to include BTC spot ETFs in its BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities fund. Other asset managers will no doubt follow suit and keep demand for spot ETFs strong.
Another factor providing support has been the Fed. Key speakers like Waller and Powell have affirmed that the Fed is still on path to cut rates this year. The USD has been trickling lower on this and even Gold has broke all-time highs!
The spot-forward spread continues to be the lowest hanging fruit. The following is an indicative run for BTC and ETH:
| BTC |Ann(%)|
| 29MAR24 | 17|
| 26APR24 | 19 |
| 28JUN24 | 16 |
| 27SEP24 | 16 |
| 27DEC24 | 15 |
| ETH |Ann(%)|
| 29MAR24 | 17|
| 26APR24 | 20 |
| 28JUN24 | 17 |
| 27SEP24 | 15 |
| 27DEC24 | 14 |
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Overnight US stock market crash: A reflexivity storm triggered by a $100 billion “early exit”
A wave of $100 billion in mechanical selling pressure triggered a "head start" on Wall Street, but these early moves by smart money instead accelerated the sell-off: the Nasdaq fell 6.4% in a single day, semiconductors plunged 12%, and the “best of the year” AI and energy barbell trades collapsed within 48 hours. Even more dangerously, lagging selling pressure is still on its way. This reflexive storm demonstrates that when everyone knows the same script and acts on it simultaneously, the script itself stops working.
U.S. stocks plunge amid midterm election turbulence! Wall Street's bullish expectations dashed, short-term selling pressure may be hard to ease
For weeks, major Wall Street trading institutions have been saying that stock market gains would resume after the US midterm elections. However, Thursday's market performance brought a dramatic reversal to this prediction.
Bernstein Comments on Datadog (DDOG.US) Q3 Financial Report: Strong Performance but Guidance "Not Surprising", Lowers AI Business Revenue Expectations
Bernstein lowered Datadog's target price from $350 to $273, but maintained its "outperform" rating.
S&P evaporates 2.8 trillion in a single day, BTIG warns: This is not the bottom, the real sell-off has just begun
BTIG Chief Technical Strategist Krinsky warns that yesterday's sharp decline in the US stock market is not the bottom, but just the beginning. Nearly 70% of S&P 500 components are still trading above their 200-day moving average, and elevated breadth indicators suggest that the sell-off is far from over. If "defensive sectors" such as healthcare and consumer staples start to fall as well, the real "generals and soldiers falling together" will occur, and the S&P may head straight for 7000 points.
Crypto prices
More
