Greeks.live: Currently, the cryptocurrency market still tends to continue selling call options, with the highest probability of a rate cut in May

2024/02/01 02:28

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Greeks.live macro researcher Adam tweeted: "No surprise, no rate hike, but the hawkish comments from the Fed still put pressure on US stocks. Currently, the probability of the first rate cut in May is highest, and the market will still endure high interest rates for more than three months. The market has been overly optimistic about liquidity. As for cryptocurrency options data, with the smooth implementation of the rate decision, major short- to medium-term IVs have seen a slight decline. It can be expected that this weekend's date option IV will be below 30%. The market is relatively weak, despite the current low IVs, but it still tends to continue selling call options."

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Goldman Sachs Volatility Panic Index surged to 9.57, approaching its maximum value, with the largest single-day increase ranking third in history, and the combined two-day volatility setting a new record. Historical data shows that after this index has exceeded the 9.5 threshold 15 times, the S&P 500 has seen an average three-month gain of 4.6% with a success rate of 80%. However, Goldman Sachs traders warn that forced liquidations have not yet fully cleared, and the market is still searching for a bottom, but opportunities on the other side are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/07 07:31