Arthur Hayes: Predicts Bitcoin may experience a healthy correction of 20%-30% in March

Arthur Hayes has written an analysis of the current trends and potential risks in the cryptocurrency market. He points out that although the cryptocurrency market is in the early stages of a bull run, investors need to be vigilant about upcoming market volatility and adjust their strategies accordingly.

 

Hayes states that he is focusing on three key variables converging in March this year: changes in the balance of U.S. reverse repurchase agreements (RRP), whether bank financing plans (BTFP) are renewed, and whether or not the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will experience a healthy correction of 20% to 30% at the beginning of March, with potentially larger pullbacks if listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun trading in America. If it's expected that hundreds of billions of fiat currency will flow into these ETFs, Bitcoin prices could climb to $60,000 or even approach its historical high point from 2021 at $70,000.

 

However, after reaching this peak, due to a shortage of dollar liquidity, Bitcoin may face a correction between 30% and 40%. Hayes plans to try capturing market bottoms and closing positions during significant market adjustments starting around March 12th (between the 12th and 20th). If his policy judgment is correct but Bitcoin prices hold steady or rise further still, Hayes will immediately close bearish option positions.