News

VIPMidterm Elections Conclude, Anthropic Initiates IPO

1. Cross-asset performance diverged this week. Between the October 30 and November 6 closes, the S&P 500 fell 2.68%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 4.91%, and BTC lost 1.88%. Gold and silver rose 4.51% and 5.79%, respectively, while the Hang Seng gained 5.10%. Sharp declines in crude oil and some Asian equity indexes showed how differently assets responded to growth, policy, and event risks. 2. Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, and markets rallied before reversing. We focus on actual changes in fiscal negotiations, key committee arrangements, and local industrial policy, especially data-center approvals, energy costs, and the pace of capital expenditure. We do not map party outcomes directly to asset direction. 3. The pullback in technology stocks has put returns on AI investment under renewed scrutiny. Whether rapid growth can cover financing, construction, and ongoing compute costs is becoming a key valuation test. For related positions, monitor policy implementation, customer capital expenditure, and cash collection together, and do not read a one-day rebound as a sign that the pressure has passed. 4. Anthropic's IPO preparations are putting the growth quality, operating profitability, and funding needs of AI model companies under public-market scrutiny. Valuations discussed for the offering are not final pricing, and participating in related products also requires assessing fees, allocation methods, asset rights, and trading restrictions. Assets in focus: BTC, the Nasdaq 100, crude oil, and gold, along with key earnings from companies including CSCO, AMAT, and CEG

VIPCross-Asset Positioning Amid AI Earnings Scrutiny and the US Election

1. Markets diverged during the week. Between the October 23 and October 30 closes, BTC fell 4.78%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.98%, and gold and silver dropped 2.72% and 8.59%, respectively. The DAX, KOSPI, Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng advanced. We focus on differences in growth prospects, valuation sensitivity and risk exposures rather than applying a single directional view across assets. 2. Market reactions to Alphabet's and Intel's earnings brought returns on AI investment into focus. Attention is shifting from the scale of capital expenditure to revenue realization, margins and free cash flow. Lower interest rates can ease discount-rate pressure, but a sustained valuation recovery still requires support from both operating performance and financing conditions. 3. The November 3 US midterm elections and November 6 employment report are key events in the coming week. We monitor how post-election fiscal and legislative agendas may affect interest rates, the dollar and industry operating conditions. Our execution priorities are to manage leverage and concentration, retain margin and exit-liquidity buffers, and avoid treating a single political outcome as an automatic trading signal. 4. Following Binance's disclosure of a security incident, industry attention to endpoint protection, access segregation and coordinated incident response has increased. Key assets to monitor: BTC, the Nasdaq 100, crude oil and gold, alongside upcoming earnings from AAPL, AMD, PLTR, ARM, ANET and QCOM.

VIPOil Risk Premiums and rToken Dividend Arbitrage Strategies

1. This week we focus on cross-asset positioning under an energy shock and arbitrage opportunities in tokenized-stock cash dividends. We recommend assessing market direction separately from income sources. Higher oil can weigh on growth valuations, lift inflation expectations, and spark expectations of Fed rate hikes, putting pressure on equities and crypto. 2. rToken net cash dividends can be distributed separately, but buying spot, shorting a perpetual, and holding across the record date does not automatically create an arbitrage. First confirm ex-dividend eligibility, platform snapshots, after-tax amounts, and the corporate-action rules for the short leg. Then compare funding fees, spreads, and execution costs. A dividend arbitrage strategy can be applied to STRC. 3. Next week's Fed decision and major technology earnings are key. Lower policy uncertainty can help restore risk appetite, but a sustained rebound still needs confirmation from rates, cloud growth, capital expenditure, and free cash flow. Our base case is a monthly-timeframe rebound in risk assets and crypto as earnings season, the Fed meeting, and the midterm elections pass and uncertainty recedes. Assets in focus: BTC, ETH, SOL, WTI, ASML, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, CAT, and STRC