US500: Can a Three-Day Rally Survive 73% December Hike Odds?

The Fed paused. The market rallied. But two FOMC members didn't get the memo — they voted to hike. And futures markets are pricing a 73% chance the pause doesn't last past December.

That's the tension hanging over the SP 500's three-day advance. The index closed at 7,743.98 (+0.28%) on Wednesday, its third consecutive green session, as equities initially welcomed the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the policy rate at 3.75%–4.00%. Technology shares led the move, with Oracle surging 11% on the day. But the rally is running directly into overhead supply — and the Fed's "pause" looks more like a delay than a pivot.

🌍 Why This Matters Now

The FOMC vote was 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both dissenting in favour of another 25bp hike. The statement continued to stress that inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.02%, and CME FedWatch pricing puts the probability of a further 25bp hike at the December 9 meeting at 72.8%.

This isn't a dovish pause. It's a split committee buying time — and tomorrow's Q3 GDP and September PCE prints could either cool those hike expectations or pour fuel on them.

📊 Technical Outlook

The daily chart remains constructive, but price is testing the ceiling of its recent range.

The index has rebounded cleanly from the 7,700–7,720 demand zone, where horizontal support converges with the rising trendline. It's holding above its key moving-average structure, preserving the broader bullish bias. But the rally is now pressing into the 7,770–7,780 first resistance zone, with major supply at 7,800–7,817 — just below the October 6 record high of 7,818.93.

The multi-timeframe dashboard tells a nuanced story:

Daily: Bullish structure, but MACD remains bearish — momentum hasn't confirmed the price recovery.

Weekly: Bullish, though momentum indicators are mixed.

Monthly: Strong bullish trend intact.

The broader uptrend is alive. Short-term upside, however, is getting harder as price approaches overhead supply under a hawkish Fed backdrop.

🎯 Key Levels

Resistance:

7,770–7,780: Near-term resistance. A sustained daily close above here opens the door to the next zone.

7,800–7,817: Major supply area and breakout threshold. This is the level that decides whether the three-day rally becomes a continuation or a fade.

7,819+: Record high territory. A decisive break above 7,818.93 reopens the path toward fresh highs.

Support:

7,722–7,700: Immediate support, reinforced by the rising trendline and recent demand zone.

7,692–7,685: Secondary support below the current structure.

7,520–7,508: Major lower support if the 7,700 area fails.

⚠️ Risk View

My bias is cautiously bullish while price holds above 7,700–7,720. A sustained daily close above 7,770, followed by a break of 7,800–7,817, would strengthen the bullish continuation case toward the record high.

But the risk is real: if tomorrow's PCE runs hot, December hike odds climb further, the 10-year pushes decisively above 5%, and this rally stalls at supply. Failure to clear the 7,770–7,780 cluster could trigger a pullback toward 7,700. A decisive breakdown below the rising trendline and 7,700 support would shift focus to 7,690, potentially 7,520.

The main threat to bulls isn't on the chart — it's in the data. Resilient demand, elevated oil prices, and a 5%+ 10-year yield mean the Fed's next move depends on inflation prints that haven't landed yet.

The bottom line: The rally is real, the structure is bullish, and the trend is intact. But the Fed's pause is fragile, the committee is split, and 73% odds say December brings another hike. Watch 7,770 on the upside and tomorrow's PCE on the macro side — those two data points will likely decide whether this three-day run extends or fades.

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